华龙证券：首次覆盖海亮股份给予增持评级

Core Viewpoint - Hailiang Co., Ltd. is recognized as a global leader in copper processing, focusing on expanding scale and improving turnover despite market cycles, with an initial "Buy" rating assigned by HuLong Securities [1] Company Overview - Established over 20 years ago, Hailiang specializes in high-quality copper processing products, including copper tubes, rods, and foils, with 23 production bases globally, making it the largest and most competitive manufacturer in the copper tube and rod sector [2] - As of March 2025, the company has a total capacity of 1.4805 million tons, with 920,000 tons for copper tubes and 380,000 tons for copper rods, which are the core business segments [2] - Copper tubes and rods account for over 60% of the company's revenue, with their gross margin directly impacting the overall profitability [2] Market Dynamics - The demand for copper tubes in China is expected to grow, particularly in the HVAC sector, which utilizes 75% of the copper tubes produced [2] - The Asia-Pacific market is projected to have the fastest growth in the global copper tube market from 2022 to 2032 [2] Financial Performance and Projections - The company has expanded its capacity and revenue through self-construction and acquisitions since 2016, with copper prices having a more significant impact on revenue than sales volume [2][3] - Profitability is expected to improve as the company scales up and reduces costs, with gross margins anticipated to recover gradually from 2025 to 2027 [5] Strategic Partnerships - Hailiang plans to acquire at least 20% of Jinlong Group, enhancing its production scale and market position, while also focusing on operational cooperation to reduce costs and improve efficiency [4] - The company is also developing products related to thermal management, targeting sectors like data centers and consumer electronics [4] Earnings Forecast - The average copper price is expected to rise significantly in 2024 compared to 2023, leading to an increase in revenue from the copper processing business [5] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 1.086 billion yuan, 1.224 billion yuan, and 1.492 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.7, 16.6, and 13.6 [5]