中信证券：公用事业行业盈利弹性持续释放 水电火电有望延续业绩增势

Core Viewpoint - The overall profitability of the A-share public utility industry is expected to continue improving in 2024 and Q1 2025, despite emerging supply growth impacts on electricity prices and utilization hours, leading to potential performance divergence among sectors [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The A-share public utility industry is projected to see a slight revenue decline of 0.1% year-on-year in 2024, primarily due to falling market electricity prices driven by reduced fuel costs [1] - The industry’s net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 11.3% year-on-year, with ROE increasing by 0.4 percentage points to 8.6%, indicating a recovery to historical normal levels [1] - Capital expenditure in the industry is anticipated to rise by 20.8% year-on-year in 2024, supported by strong cash flow generation capabilities [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Thermal Power: The domestic thermal coal price is expected to decrease by 11.4% year-on-year in 2024, improving profitability for thermal power companies. Despite supply shocks leading to lower market electricity prices in Q1 2025, further declines in fuel costs are projected to support profit growth [2] - Hydropower: The national hydropower utilization hours are expected to increase by over 200 hours year-on-year in 2024, resulting in a 17.4% profit growth. The continued improvement in water inflow is expected to provide a basis for further profit growth in 2025 [3] - Nuclear Power: New units like Fangchenggang Unit 4 are expected to drive a 2.9% increase in nuclear power generation in 2024. However, a one-time tax payment in Q4 2024 is projected to lead to a decline in net profit [4] - Renewable Energy: Investment in renewable energy is expected to grow by 12.5% year-on-year to 754.5 billion yuan in 2024, but challenges in resource adjustment and transmission capacity are anticipated to negatively impact profitability, with net profit expected to decline by 14.3% in 2024 [5] - Gas: The gas sector is expected to see steady demand growth and a decline in gas prices, leading to stable performance. However, individual company factors may cause slight overall profit declines [6]