OPEC+增产VS地缘风险溢价，油价区间震荡

Oil Price Review - As of May 23, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $64.78 per barrel, down $0.63 (-0.96%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $61.53 per barrel, down $0.44 (-0.71%) [2][3] - The Urals crude spot price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, and the ESPO crude spot price decreased by $0.29 (-0.48%) to $60.56 per barrel [2][3] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the lack of substantial progress in Russia-Ukraine talks and uncertain prospects for US-Iran negotiations, are contributing to risk premiums in oil prices [2] - Israel's preparations to attack Iranian nuclear facilities are also influencing market sentiment [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting in June is expected to determine July's production plans, leading to cautious market behavior [2] - In the US, crude oil production increased to 13.392 million barrels per day as of May 16, 2025, while the number of active drilling rigs decreased by 8 to 465 [3] - US refinery crude processing rose to 16.49 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 90.70%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous week [3] Inventory Levels - As of May 16, 2025, total US crude oil inventories increased by 2.171 million barrels (+0.26%) to 844 million barrels, with strategic reserves at 400 million barrels (+0.21%) and commercial inventories at 443 million barrels (+0.30%) [3] - The Cushing region's crude oil inventory decreased by 457,000 barrels (-1.91%) [3] Refined Product Inventory - As of May 16, 2025, US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories saw increases of 0.36%, 0.56%, and 1.11% respectively [4] Related Companies - Relevant companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [4]