管涛：极限关税施压下的中国经济成色

Core Viewpoint - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. is expected to support the resilience of foreign trade in the second quarter, but the future of economic negotiations remains uncertain due to escalating strategic competition between the two countries [1][12]. Group 1: Trade and Economic Impact - In April, China's exports to the U.S. decreased by 21% year-on-year, while imports fell by 14%, indicating a significant impact from the tariffs, but the overall trade balance was not completely disrupted [2]. - China's overall export growth in April was 8.1%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 2.0%, supported by increased exports to non-U.S. countries, such as a 21% increase to ASEAN [2]. - The industrial added value in April grew by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 5.5%, driven by resilient foreign trade [2]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Structural Changes - The high-tech manufacturing and digital product sectors showed strong performance, with year-on-year growth rates of 10% for both categories, indicating a shift towards industrial upgrading [3]. - Investment in high-tech services increased by 11.3% year-on-year from January to April, with information services seeing a remarkable 40.6% growth [3]. Group 3: Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.8% year-on-year from January to April, supported by accelerated fiscal policies [4]. - Local government special bonds issuance reached 1.19 trillion yuan, a 65% increase year-on-year, indicating a proactive approach to funding infrastructure projects [4]. Group 4: Financial Market Resilience - The Chinese financial market demonstrated strong resilience, with the A-share market rebounding by 7.1% from its low in April, and the onshore and offshore RMB appreciating by 1.2% and 2.2% respectively [5][6]. - Despite the pressures from U.S. tariffs, foreign capital continued to show interest in Chinese assets, with net inflows into domestic bonds and stocks [6]. Group 5: Currency and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB appreciated against the USD, but its real effective exchange rate index fell by 2.9% in April, indicating a passive appreciation that does not harm export competitiveness [8]. - The foreign exchange market remained stable, with banks reporting a surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales, driven by increased willingness to settle in RMB [7]. Group 6: Consumer and Real Estate Market Trends - Consumer spending showed signs of weakness, with retail sales growth slowing to 5.1% in April, below market expectations, largely due to declining automobile sales [10]. - The real estate market faced challenges, with sales volume and value declining by 2.1% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a weakening demand [11].