乌克兰债券受和平进程拖累表现低迷 东欧邻国市场飙升

Core Viewpoint - Ukrainian dollar bonds have underperformed due to bleak prospects for a peace agreement, resulting in over 10% losses for investors in 2025, making them the worst performers among emerging and frontier markets [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Ukrainian bonds saw prices nearly double since last August's restructuring due to initial hopes for a ceasefire, which also boosted the entire Eastern European market [1] - Major stock indices in Warsaw, Prague, and Budapest have recorded over 30% returns in USD terms this year, with currencies like the Hungarian forint, Czech koruna, and Polish zloty leading gains among emerging market currencies [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Frontier Road, a London hedge fund, has shifted towards corporate bonds to mitigate geopolitical risks [1] - Bank of America maintains an overweight recommendation but warns of "downside risks" due to the ongoing conflict, while Morgan Stanley predicts that the conflict will extend into 2025 [1] Group 3: Bond Pricing - The price of Ukraine's zero-coupon bonds maturing in 2035 has dropped from 70 cents in February to 50 cents [1]