配置中国资产“热”逻辑从何来

Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets have gained significant attention in the global capital allocation landscape, with many international asset management institutions including them in their core asset lists, reflecting a consensus on overweighting these assets while reducing exposure to U.S. assets [1][2]. Economic Resilience - China's economic growth certainty reassures international investors, showcasing strong resilience and capacity to withstand shocks, as evidenced by April's economic data [1]. - Retail sales in April increased by 5.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift towards quality consumption [1]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.0% from January to April, with significant contributions from major strategic projects and equipment upgrades [1]. - The total import and export value from January to April rose by 2.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1]. Reform and Openness - The ongoing reforms and opening-up of China's capital markets instill confidence in international investors, providing a more open, transparent, and regulated market environment [2]. - Mechanisms like the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Bond Connect facilitate easier participation for international investors, with foreign investors holding around 3 trillion yuan in A-shares [2]. - The central government's focus on strategic reserves and market stabilization enhances the capital market's ability to respond to various risks [2]. High Return Expectations - The attractiveness of Chinese assets is shifting from a single growth narrative to a dual driver of "growth + returns," with A-share dividends expected to reach 2.34 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining over 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive years [3]. - The proportion of listed companies with dividend yields exceeding 3% has risen to 35%, creating a "cash cow" matrix [3]. - In contrast, U.S. tech stocks face valuation bubble concerns, with high dynamic P/E ratios and low dividend yields, increasing investment risks in dollar assets [3]. - China's economic "triple certainty"—growth resilience, institutional stability, and asset value—positions it as a global capital "safe haven" and "growth pole" amid low growth and high volatility [3].