出货量激增带动运价跳涨 外贸企业接新订单趋谨慎

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction of tariffs between China and the U.S. has led to a surge in shipping demand, particularly on the U.S. routes, resulting in significant increases in freight rates and a near-complete booking of shipping slots by the end of May [1][2][3]. Shipping Demand and Freight Rates - Since the issuance of the joint statement on May 12, there has been a dramatic increase in shipping demand, with booking volumes for U.S. routes rising by 53% from May 14 to May 21, compared to the previous week [2]. - By the end of May, freight rates for the U.S. West Coast reached approximately $3,500 per FEU, while rates for the East Coast were around $5,000 per FEU, marking increases of $1,000 per FEU from earlier in the month [3]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported that as of May 23, freight rates for exports to the U.S. West and East coasts had increased by approximately 40% and 30%, respectively, compared to rates from May 9 [3][4]. Global Shipping Impact - The surge in U.S. shipping rates has also influenced global shipping rates, with the rate for exports to Europe increasing by 14.1% as of May 23 [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The shipping industry anticipates that freight rates will continue to rise due to a shortage of shipping capacity, with projections indicating potential increases of over $1,000 per FEU in June [6]. - Despite the expectation of rising rates, some freight forwarders believe that increased shipping capacity in June may lead to a stabilization or decrease in rates [7]. Cautious Approach from Exporters - Exporters are adopting a cautious stance towards new orders due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and shipping capacity, with many preferring to wait until they can better predict costs and delivery times [8]. - The long shipping cycles, particularly for the East Coast, which can take up to 85 days, further complicate the situation for exporters [8].