后期即将进入纯销售期 白糖价格处震荡区间中轨

Core Viewpoint - The sugar futures market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight weekly decline, while domestic consumption remains robust despite seasonal trends [1][3]. Market Overview - As of May 23, 2025, the main sugar futures contract closed at 5833 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of -0.44% [1]. - The opening price for the week was 5850 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 5882 yuan/ton and a low of 5826 yuan/ton [1]. Import Costs - The cost of importing Brazilian raw sugar is approximately 4679 yuan/ton (within quota, 15% tariff) or 5987 yuan/ton (outside quota, 50% tariff) [2]. - The cost of importing Thai raw sugar is about 4700 yuan/ton (within quota, 15% tariff) or 6015 yuan/ton (outside quota, 50% tariff) [2]. Import Statistics - In April 2025, China's sugar import volume was 134,847.788 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 94.89% and a year-on-year increase of 148.46% [2]. Supply and Demand Insights - The Brazilian sugarcane harvest is progressing well, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices, while domestic consumption remains strong [3]. - Current domestic sugar production is expected to increase by approximately 1.3 million tons compared to the previous year, with good sales in April leading to a reduction in industrial inventory [3]. - The market is entering a pure sales phase with the onset of summer demand, which may support prices despite international raw sugar pressures [3].