Group 1: Silicon Manganese Market Overview - The silicon manganese market experienced significant volatility in the last two trading days due to news influences [1] - Daily production of manganese silicon slightly increased this week, with recovery in Inner Mongolia and a slowdown in production cuts in Ningxia [1] - Supply pressure remains concentrated in the northern production areas, while the southern regions have limited capacity for supply compression [1] Group 2: Demand and Inventory Trends - Iron water production decreased week-on-week, while port throughput remained high, with increases primarily from water transfer [1] - In terms of finished product data, hot-rolled and rebar demand showed a week-on-week decline, while wire rod demand increased overall, maintaining a destocking pattern [1] - Cold-rolled products continue to face significant pressure, but low inventory and resilient demand for finished products suggest limited contradictions in the market [1] Group 3: Manganese Ore Supply and Pricing - Global manganese ore shipments increased this week, with floating inventory concentrated in South Africa and Ghana, indicating high future import volumes [1] - The recovery of South32's Australian mines will further boost global manganese ore supply, putting downward pressure on manganese ore prices [1] - Port traders are facing negative import profits due to overseas mines lowering forward prices, leading to feedback pressure on manganese silicon and potential supply release [1] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Short-term supply pressure for manganese silicon is expected to persist, but increased news disturbances may influence market dynamics [1] - Despite expectations for high iron water production, the overall market for manganese silicon is likely to remain in a bottom oscillation phase, lacking strong upward trend support [1] Group 5: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Daily production of silicon iron decreased week-on-week, continuing to alleviate supply pressure, although overall inventory remains at a medium-high level [2] - Profit margins among main production area manufacturers are diverging, with loss-making companies maintaining production cuts and downstream purchasing enthusiasm declining [2] - The non-steel demand for magnesium metal remains strong due to raw material influences, but downstream demand is cautious with limited inquiries [2] Group 6: Price Strategy and Market Expectations - The market strategy for silicon iron suggests a range-bound trading approach, with short-term support levels around 5400 [2] - The outlook indicates a significant easing of supply-demand conflicts for silicon iron, but caution is advised regarding potential mismatches in supply and demand [2] - Price fluctuations are expected to continue, with the 07 contract projected to range between 5500-5800 [2]
铁合金期货周报：南非消息扰动 锰硅“一日游”
Jin Tou Wang·2025-05-26 03:02