一周流动性观察 | 税期叠加跨月资金面平稳还需依赖央行呵护

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 382 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation with an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net injection of 227.5 billion yuan after 154.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - In the week of May 19-23, the central bank continued to inject liquidity, with a total net injection of 960 billion yuan, including a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on Friday and a net MLF injection of 375 billion yuan for May [1][2] - Despite the PBOC's ongoing liquidity injections, the funding environment showed slight tightening due to tax payments, with overnight funding rates rising above 1.6% [1][2] Group 2 - The funding rates showed a gradual recovery trend, with average funding prices increasing compared to the previous week, although overall rates were on a downward trajectory [2] - The average overnight funding rate recovered to the range of 1.4%-1.5%, with DR001 and R001 rates decreasing by 15 basis points and 13 basis points, respectively [2] - The upcoming week (May 26-30) may see marginal tightening in the funding environment due to tax payments coinciding with month-end, which could increase upward pressure on rates [2][3] Group 3 - May's fiscal spending is expected to support liquidity, with historical data indicating a spending range of 1.7-1.9 trillion yuan [3] - The net repayment pressure from government bonds decreased to 353.1 billion yuan, alleviating some disturbances to the funding environment [3] - The PBOC's operations at the end of the month will be crucial in determining the structure of medium to long-term funding injections, with a total of 13.75 trillion yuan of medium to long-term funds released this month [3][4] Group 4 - The upcoming week will see an increase in reverse repo maturities to 946 billion yuan, with tax payment pressures expected to influence the funding environment [4] - The recent decrease in loan and deposit rates is anticipated to ease banks' net interest margin pressures, providing room for future rate cuts [5] - The PBOC's actions reflect a commitment to maintaining stable funding conditions, with expectations that funding rates will remain balanced despite external pressures [5]