智通财经网·2025-05-26 03:15Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is rated "overweight" by Guotai Junan, with expectations of weakening demand in the short term as the industry transitions into the off-season, while long-term trends indicate increased industry concentration and high-quality development benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 9.0456 million tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons week-on-week; construction materials consumption increased by 5.6%, while plate consumption decreased by 14.8% [1] - Total steel inventory was 13.9854 million tons, down by 321,200 tons, maintaining the lowest level for the same period in recent years [1] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 83.69%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace operating rates increased by 1.29 percentage points [1][2] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Trends - The average gross profit for rebar was 173.6 CNY/ton, down by 42.5 CNY/ton, and for hot-rolled coils, it was 89.6 CNY/ton, down by 10.5 CNY/ton; overall profitability among 247 steel companies was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points [2] - Expectations of accelerated iron ore production and limited demand suggest that iron ore may enter a loose cycle, potentially improving cost constraints for the steel industry [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The negative impact of declining real estate demand on steel consumption is expected to diminish, while infrastructure investment will continue to support demand stability [3] - The supply side is showing signs of weakness, with some smaller steel companies experiencing cash flow losses, leading to potential production cuts in 2024 and 2025 [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced plans for continued regulation of crude steel production, promoting restructuring in the steel industry [3] Group 4: Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Shougang, and low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [4] - Companies with competitive advantages and high dividends such as CITIC Special Steel and Yongjin Co., as well as high-barrier material companies like Jiuli Special Materials and Xianglou New Materials, are highlighted [4] - Upstream resource companies like Hebei Steel Resources and Erdos are favored due to expected demand recovery [4]