钢材期货行情分析：需求淡季和成本拖累 钢价维持低位震荡走势

Supply - Iron element production has decreased for two consecutive weeks, with average daily pig iron output down by 11,700 tons to 2,436,000 tons. Scrap steel consumption has increased by 2,500 tons to 548,000 tons. The production of the five major steel materials has decreased by 40,000 tons to 8,724,400 tons, while rebar production has increased by 50,000 tons to 2,315,000 tons, and hot-rolled coil production has decreased by 63,000 tons to 3,057,000 tons [1][2] - The cumulative year-on-year growth of iron element production from January to April is 11.5 million tons, with an average daily increase of nearly 100,000 tons. The maximum increase occurred in April, with a year-on-year growth of 7 million tons for that month [1][2] - The weekly production of the five major materials in April was 8.75 million tons, which is lower than the weekly average demand of 9.26 million tons. Rebar weekly average production in April was 2.3 million tons, below the demand of 2.5 million tons, and hot-rolled coil weekly average demand was 3.17 million tons, below the demand of 3.24 million tons [1][2] Demand - In May, the apparent demand for the five major materials has decreased month-on-month, with a reduction of 90,000 tons to 9,050,000 tons. Rebar demand decreased by 130,000 tons to 2,470,000 tons, and hot-rolled coil demand decreased by 165,000 tons to 3,130,000 tons [2] - Overall apparent demand has decreased month-on-month, with cold-rolled steel demand and inventory weakening. Domestic demand is facing a seasonal decline, while direct steel exports remain high, with net exports of steel and steel billets increasing by 50,000 tons year-on-year [2] - Manufacturing orders have declined due to U.S. tariffs, leading to a decrease in demand in April, particularly affecting cold-rolled steel inventory. However, after the tariff reduction in May, demand has shown some recovery, although it remains weak overall [2][3] Inventory - Steel inventory continues to show a trend of reduction, but the pace of reduction has slowed down. The five major materials inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 13,986,000 tons, with rebar down by 156,000 tons to 6,042,200 tons, and hot-rolled coil down by 74,000 tons to 3,400,000 tons. Cold-rolled steel continues to accumulate inventory, increasing by 36,200 tons to 1,728,000 tons [2] Cost and Profit - Profits remain stable, with blast furnace profitability, while electric furnace operations are at a loss. Current profits for steel products are as follows: steel billets > rebar > hot-rolled coil > cold-rolled coil, with rebar and hot-rolled coil profits at 100 yuan and 45 yuan per ton, respectively [2] Market Outlook - Following the tariff reduction on May 12, black steel prices initially rose but have since shown a weak trend. After a decline in pig iron data on Thursday, iron ore prices and steel prices have seen increased downward pressure. Current steel mill profits are acceptable, and with low inventory levels, there is no expectation of significant production cuts [3] - The reduction in tariffs in May has led to some recovery in demand, but the manufacturing sector is primarily affected by the home appliance and machinery industries. Short-term steel inventory pressure is expected to be manageable, supporting high steel production levels [3] - Steel prices are influenced by the decline in carbon elements, leading to a continuous downward shift in price levels. Seasonal declines in pig iron production are affecting iron element prices, but there is a lack of downward driving forces for iron elements [3]