Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) 智通财经网·2025-05-26 06:42Core Viewpoint - The oil shipping industry is expected to see improved capacity utilization in 2024, driven by a favorable supply-demand dynamic and an anticipated increase in crude oil production over the next two years [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Shipping Demand - The demand for oil shipping is projected to grow due to OPEC+ production increases, which will enhance the certainty of oil shipping demand growth [1]. - The oil shipping capacity utilization has reached a threshold, indicating significant demand growth driven by the restructuring of global oil shipping trade [2]. - The shadow fleet sanctions are tightening, which is expected to restore normal market cargo volumes and reduce effective capacity, thereby improving the oil shipping supply-demand balance [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil Shipping - The trade rhythm is expected to dominate short-term price fluctuations, but the price center for crude oil shipping is anticipated to significantly rebound compared to the first half of 2024, with recent rates for Middle East-China routes exceeding $40,000 [1]. - The oil shipping market is likely to undergo pressure testing in the second half of 2024 due to production cuts and geopolitical oil price impacts on trade [2]. Group 3: Refined Oil Shipping - Recent improvements in refinery profitability are expected to support a rebound in the price center for refined oil shipping, with historical records anticipated for the first half of 2024 [3]. - The trend of refinery relocation is expected to continue, leading to demand growth that exceeds expectations and can absorb new ship deliveries [3]. - The refined oil shipping market is projected to experience continued improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a sustained rise in market conditions expected to surpass market forecasts [3]. Group 4: Dry Bulk and Container Shipping - The demand for dry bulk shipping is currently weak due to low iron ore and coal demand, while Brazilian grain exports are increasing, indicating a need to monitor mining production [1]. - Container shipping rates have surged due to tariff reductions, with the sustainability of this increase dependent on future tariff expectations [1].