避险情绪抬升，金价大幅反弹

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have rebounded due to increased market risk aversion following the passage of Trump's tax reform and proposed tariffs on Europe, with medium to long-term support expected from the Fed's interest rate cuts and global de-dollarization trends [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of May 23, gold closed at $3357.52 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $124.68 per ounce, representing a 4.86% rise [1]. - Trump's tax reform passed in the House with a narrow margin, raising concerns about the U.S. deficit [3]. - Trump announced a proposal to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, heightening market risk aversion [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. May Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3, above expectations of 49.9, while the Services PMI also came in at 52.3, exceeding the forecast of 51 [2]. - The U.S. April existing home sales fell by 0.5% to an annualized rate of 4 million units, the lowest since 2009, while new home sales rose by 10.9% to an annualized rate of 743,000 units [2]. - The U.S. leading economic index (LEI) dropped by 1.0% in April, marking the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [2]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - The ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold is notable, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves to 73.77 million ounces as of April, marking the sixth consecutive month of increases [5]. - The combination of monetary expansion, fiscal deficit monetization, and geopolitical instability is expected to enhance the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - The global trend of de-dollarization may position gold as a new pricing anchor, potentially leading to upward momentum for precious metals [4].