市场预期有望反复博弈 短期铁矿石震荡运行

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices experienced fluctuations last week, with a slight decline in the price index, indicating a volatile market environment [1]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of May 24, the iron ore price index was recorded at 777.56, reflecting a decrease of 0.88% compared to the previous period [1]. - The closing price for the main iron ore futures contract on May 26 was 706.5 yuan/ton, down by 2.21%, with a daily trading volume of 456,783 contracts [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Port Data - On May 23, iron ore port inventory was reported at 145.9183 million tons, a decrease of 1.5516 million tons from the previous trading day [2]. - From May 19 to May 25, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports reached 23.441 million tons, an increase of 637,000 tons compared to the previous period [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - Major mining companies have significantly increased shipments, entering a peak shipping period, while non-mainstream mines have shown a steady recovery, although their impact on overall supply remains limited [3]. - Domestic steel demand is under pressure due to a significant decline in new construction starts in April, which affects steel consumption [3]. - Manufacturing steel demand continues to grow, supported by high growth rates in equipment purchases, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 18.2% in the first four months [3].