美元信用边际递减不可逆转

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the weakening of the US dollar index is primarily due to Trump's tariff policies, which pose significant risks to the global and US economies [1][12] - The US dollar's status as the dominant global currency has been undermined by persistent trade and fiscal deficits, leading to a gradual erosion of its creditworthiness [2][5] - Trump's tariff policies aim to reverse trade deficits and encourage capital repatriation to US manufacturing, but they disrupt global trade and could ultimately harm the dollar's international status [3][4] Group 2 - The US fiscal deficit has reached unprecedented levels, with the federal deficit hitting $1.83 trillion in the last fiscal year and projected to exceed $1 trillion in the first half of the 2025 fiscal year [6][8] - The reliance on debt issuance has led to a vicious cycle of increasing fiscal deficits and rising interest payments, which are projected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time in the 2024 fiscal year [6][7] - The US national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, and projections suggest it could increase by another $20 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy [7] Group 3 - Inflation risks are exacerbated by Trump's tariff policies, which could lead to increased costs for consumers and further damage the dollar's credibility [8][9] - Goldman Sachs predicts that even a 10% tariff could raise US inflation rates to 3%, indicating a significant impact on the economy [9] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts reflects concerns about long-term inflation trends, which could further undermine the dollar's value [10][11] Group 4 - The market is adjusting to the potential for economic downturns, with rising yields on US Treasury bonds indicating long-term concerns about the US economy [13][14] - The perception of the dollar as a safe haven is shifting, with investors increasingly viewing it as a risk asset rather than a refuge, leading to a decline in the dollar index [14][15] - The collective shift in investor sentiment reflects a broader loss of confidence in the dollar's creditworthiness, which may be difficult to restore even with policy changes [15]