Autodesk: Near-Term Fortunes Dependent On Construction Spending

Group 1 - Autodesk's growth is currently accelerating due to a shift in its business model, although underlying growth remains modest as recent tailwinds are fading [1] - Narweena, an asset manager, focuses on identifying market dislocations resulting from a poor understanding of long-term business prospects, aiming for excess risk-adjusted returns through secular growth opportunities [1] - The investment strategy is influenced by an aging population, low population growth, and stagnating productivity, which may create new investment opportunities distinct from past trends [1] Group 2 - Many industries are expected to face stagnation or secular decline, which could paradoxically enhance business performance due to reduced competition [1] - Conversely, some businesses may encounter rising costs and diseconomies of scale, impacting their performance negatively [1] - The economy is increasingly characterized by asset-light businesses, leading to a declining need for infrastructure investments over time [1] Group 3 - A large pool of capital is pursuing a limited set of investment opportunities, resulting in rising asset prices and compressed risk premia [1] - Richard Durant, the leader of Narweena, has a strong educational background in engineering and finance, along with an MBA, and has passed the CFA exams [1]