【财经分析】债市震荡不改较乐观预期 “每调买机”策略仍获关注

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of cautious sentiment and narrow fluctuations, influenced by recent interest rate cuts and government bond supply dynamics [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite recent deposit rate cuts, the bond market has not reacted positively, as these cuts are viewed as a continuation of earlier rate reduction actions [2][3]. - From May 19 to May 23, the bond market showed a mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 1 basis point to 1.69%, while the 3-year bond yield fell by 1 basis point to 1.49% [2]. - The issuance of long-term government bonds has been weak, with a notable decline in the bid-to-cover ratio for recent auctions, indicating reduced enthusiasm in the primary market [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - There is a significant mismatch between the growth rates of government bonds and bank liabilities, with government bond growth increasing from 17.0% to 20.7%, while bank liabilities only rose from 6.3% to 7.4% [3]. - The pressure on banks to absorb new government bond supply is expected to increase, leading to a potential reduction in their demand for bonds in the secondary market [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The supply pressure in the bond market is likely to ease in June and July, with a projected increase in government bond maturities and a slowdown in new bond issuance [4]. - Analysts anticipate that the net issuance of government bonds will decrease significantly in the second half of the year, which could improve the supply-demand dynamics in the bond market [4]. - There is a possibility of a "bond bull" market re-emerging, driven by stable demand for fixed-income assets and a potential decline in interest rates [5].