PayPal Stock Trades 25% Below its 52-Week High: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Core Viewpoint - PayPal's stock has faced significant challenges due to increased competition in the fintech sector and a tough macroeconomic environment, leading to a year-to-date decline of 18.1% and a closing price of $69.85, which is 25.4% below its 52-week high of $93.66 [1][2] Financial Performance - PayPal reported impressive first-quarter 2025 results, with non-GAAP earnings of $1.33 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.65% and showing a year-over-year increase of 23.1% [5] - Net revenues for the first quarter reached $7.79 billion, reflecting a 1.2% year-over-year increase on a reported basis and a 2% increase on a forex-neutral basis [5] - Total payment volume rose 3% year over year to $417.2 billion, with transaction margin in dollar terms increasing over 7% to $3.7 billion [6] Valuation Metrics - PayPal shares are currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 13.15X, significantly lower than the Zacks Financial Transaction Services industry's average of 22.78X, and cheaper than Visa and Mastercard, which have P/E ratios of 28.79X and 33.07X, respectively [7] Earnings Guidance - For 2025, PayPal anticipates non-GAAP earnings between $4.95 and $5.10 per share, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings at $5.08 per share, indicating a 9.25% growth over 2024 [13][14] - The consensus for second-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.28 per share, suggesting a 7.56% growth compared to the previous year [14] Strategic Initiatives - PayPal is transforming into an end-to-end strategic commerce partner, enhancing relationships with merchants and consumers through its two-sided platform [17] - The company is focusing on omnichannel commerce and plans to launch NFC capabilities in Germany and expand its services in the UK [18] - PayPal's partnership with Coinbase aims to boost the adoption of its stablecoin, PYUSD, enhancing its market presence [19] Growth Opportunities - PayPal's Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) service saw over 20% volume growth in the first quarter, with BNPL users spending 33% more and conducting 17% more transactions [20] - The company plans to increase consumer awareness of its BNPL solutions through targeted campaigns in various countries [20] Investment Considerations - PayPal's strong portfolio, expanding partner base, and attractive valuation make it appealing for long-term investors, despite facing competition and macroeconomic challenges [21]