UPS vs. WAB: Which Dividend-Paying Transportation Stock to Bet on Now?

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) and Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB) have both announced dividend increases this year, demonstrating a shareholder-friendly approach despite economic uncertainties [1][3]. Dividend Performance - WAB's board approved a 25% dividend increase, raising its quarterly cash dividend to $0.25 per share ($1.00 annualized) from $0.20 (80 cents annualized) [3]. - UPS raised its quarterly cash dividend to $1.64 per share ($6.56 annualized) from $1.63 ($6.52 annualized) [3]. Dividend Sustainability - Concerns about the sustainability of UPS's dividends arise due to its elevated dividend payout ratio, which indicates potential challenges in maintaining long-term dividend payments [4][6]. - UPS's free cash flow has declined from a high of $9 billion in 2022, with projections of $5.7 billion in 2025 against expected dividend payments of approximately $5.5 billion [5][6]. - In contrast, WAB's lower dividend payout ratio suggests no significant concerns regarding its ability to sustain dividend payments [6]. Price Performance - WAB has achieved a 5.1% year-to-date gain, while UPS has seen a double-digit decline in stock performance in 2025 [8]. - UPS's poor performance is attributed to revenue weakness due to geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation affecting consumer sentiment [11]. Market Outlook - WAB's strength is linked to its focus on new technologies and cost-cutting initiatives, with the global rail supply market expected to grow at an annual average of around 3% until 2027-29 [12]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WAB indicates a year-over-year sales increase of 4.6% and 4.9% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, while UPS's estimates show a 4.1% decrease for 2025 [13][14]. Valuation Comparison - WAB is trading at a forward sales multiple of 3.08, above its five-year median of 2X, while UPS has a forward sales multiple of 0.92, below its five-year median of 1.54 [15]. - WAB's higher valuation suggests investors are paying a premium for its performance, while UPS's lower valuation reflects concerns about its dividend sustainability [16]. Investment Recommendation - Given WAB's better price performance, improving earnings estimates, and lower dividend payout ratio, it appears to be a more favorable investment compared to UPS [17].