外需偏弱 贸易摩擦形势不容乐观 钢材出口多向承压

Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - The joint statement from the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks resulted in a reduction of tariffs on Chinese steel and steel products exported to the US, down to 65% and 63% respectively [1] - The slight easing of steel tariffs during the 90-day exemption period is expected to support the resilience of indirect steel exports from China [1] Group 2: Export and Import Data - In April, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, while imports were 522,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7% [1] - From January to April, China's total steel exports reached 37.891 million tons, up 8.2% year-on-year, while imports totaled 2.072 million tons, down 13.9% [1] Group 3: Global Steel Market Conditions - As of May 8, the export prices for hot-rolled coils from India, Turkey, and the CIS regions were $595/ton, $550/ton, and $460/ton respectively, while China's price was $462/ton [2] - In March, global crude steel production reached 166.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with non-China regions producing 73.3 million tons, up 0.5% [2] Group 4: Manufacturing and Export Orders - The global manufacturing PMI for April was reported at 49.1%, indicating a decline, while China's manufacturing PMI for new export orders was at 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The steel export order index for Chinese steel companies continued to contract, with a new export order index of 41.0 in April, down 0.1 percentage points [3] Group 5: Trade Tensions and Protectionism - Recent trade tensions include Brazil's anti-dumping ruling on galvanized and aluminum-zinc plates from China, India's temporary 12% tariff on certain steel imports, and Canada's anti-dumping investigation into carbon and alloy steel wire from multiple countries including China [4] - Despite a slight easing in the foreign trade environment, the trend of trade protectionism is expected to suppress future steel exports from China [4]