特朗普50%关税暂缓非结束！美欧贸易战暗藏“二次引爆”风险

Core Viewpoint - Analysts warn that despite the delay of 50% tariffs on EU goods by President Trump, investors should brace for continued market volatility as trade war risks remain unresolved [1] Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The six-week window until July 9 is deemed insufficient to resolve all details, but it may be enough to establish a framework for a trade agreement [2] - If the U.S. demonstrates political will, a potential outcome could be a unified 10% tariff on EU imports, with minimal retaliation from the EU [2] - However, if tariffs escalate to 20%-30%, the EU would have no choice but to implement significant countermeasures [2] - The EU is viewed as a strong negotiating partner, with a substantial market size that is crucial to the U.S. economy [2] Uncertainty in Negotiations - Despite the extension of the tariff deadline, significant uncertainty persists, which could harm both businesses and consumers [2] - The main obstacle is the unclear demands from President Trump, despite the EU's multiple proposals [2] - The EU is attempting a balanced approach, unlike the UK and China, which have taken more extreme positions [2] Market Reactions - The delay in tariffs has led to a tentative rebound in risk appetite, but risks remain high [3] - The trade negotiations are likened to a high-risk tango, with July 9 being a critical juncture [3] - The technology and industrial sectors are particularly vulnerable to sharp fluctuations [4] - Investors are closely monitoring communications and negotiation developments, questioning whether the tariff delay is a genuine olive branch or a tactic for a larger confrontation [4]