智通财经网·2025-05-27 01:23Core Viewpoint - The express delivery sector is experiencing increased performance uncertainty, but there are opportunities for valuation recovery among leading e-commerce express companies such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, driven by market share growth and cyclical bottoming of express delivery services [1] Group 1: Industry Growth Prospects - The express delivery business volume is expected to grow over 20% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024 and 2025, driven by structural demand growth from factors like small parcelization, reverse logistics, and new models such as live e-commerce and community group buying [2] - The trend of strong growth in business volume is likely to continue into 2025, supported by policies to boost domestic demand and support from e-commerce platforms [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Price competition is expected to intensify in the first four months of 2025, with a year-on-year decline in single ticket revenue of 8.3%, reflecting increased focus on market share among leading companies [3] - Despite the intensified price competition, it is anticipated that healthy competition will prevail, aided by regulatory measures against malicious competition and the lack of large-scale capital expenditures by express companies [3] Group 3: Performance of Leading Companies - Leading e-commerce express companies maintain strong competitive advantages due to asset barriers, cash reserves, and profitability, demonstrating resilience in price competition [4] - Zhongtong Express showed stable performance in Q1 2025, with a narrowing decline in market share, and attention is needed on whether market share will rebound in the second half of the year [4] - The leading position and potential for improved profitability of direct-operated companies are expected to provide more certain returns for investors [4]