乳制品行业迎供需拐点，消费分层深化带来结构性机会

Group 1 - The dairy market is experiencing a phase of supply surplus, leading to a continuous decline in retail prices, with fresh milk purchase prices expected to remain low until Q1 2025 [1] - The revenue growth rate for the dairy sector has narrowed from -7.88% in 2024 to -0.04% in Q1 2025, indicating a potential recovery with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.8 percentage points [1] - The net profit margin for the industry decreased by 0.93 percentage points to 6.12% in 2024, but showed a significant recovery of 16.3 percentage points to 11.6% in Q1 2025, reflecting marginal improvement in profitability [1] Group 2 - The "China Food and Nutrition Development Outline (2025-2030)" emphasizes the need to increase the supply and consumption of high-quality protein foods, anchoring the upgrade path for dairy consumption at a national strategic level [2] - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" aims to significantly enhance consumption and expand domestic demand comprehensively [2] - The supply-side reform is accelerating the elimination of outdated production capacity, while deepening consumption stratification presents structural opportunities for the industry to achieve dynamic rebalancing of supply and demand [2]