最大的确定性——中国企业关税战生存图景调查

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, as well as the U.S. and China, highlighting the uncertainty in global trade dynamics and the potential impacts on various industries and companies [2][3][10]. Trade Relations and Tariffs - Trump agreed to extend the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU until July 9, following a request from the EU Commission President [2]. - The average tariff imposed by the U.S. on Chinese imports has reached 51.1%, while China's average tariff on U.S. goods stands at 32.6% [9][10]. - Compared to January 20, 2025, the average tariff on Chinese imports by the U.S. has increased by 30.4 percentage points, while China's tariffs on U.S. goods have risen by 11.4 percentage points [10]. Shipping and Logistics Impact - Following the temporary suspension of high tariffs, there was a significant surge in container bookings from China to the U.S., with increases of 280% for toys and sports goods, 358% for furniture, and 497% for plastic products [5][6]. - Shipping rates from Shanghai to New York increased by 31.7% and 22.0% for different routes after the temporary agreement was reached [6]. Employment and Economic Activity - The surge in shipping activity led to the Singapore Port Authority hiring approximately 2,500 new employees to manage increased operational demands [6]. - The article notes that the 90-day period of relative certainty has resulted in increased activity at major ports in the Asia-Pacific region, creating new job opportunities [8]. Long-term Concerns - Despite the temporary agreements, there are lingering concerns about the long-term stability of trade relations and the potential for future conflicts between major economies [9][12]. - The article emphasizes that the underlying issues of the trade war may require more time to resolve, and companies need to adapt their strategies to navigate the ongoing uncertainties [10][14]. Government Response and Market Outlook - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing employment and market expectations while promoting high-quality development in response to external uncertainties [13]. - Some experts express optimism that a new compromise may be reached after the 90-day period, as the trade war has reciprocal impacts on both economies [11].