不锈钢：盘面回归基本面交易 成本支撑供需矛盾仍存

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing weak fluctuations with stable spot prices, while inventory pressures are manageable [1][2] Raw Materials - The Philippine nickel ore market is beginning June resource procurement, but shipments are hindered by rainfall, resulting in no transactions [1][2] - In Indonesia, the domestic nickel ore price remains stable with a slight increase of $0.65-$1, while overall prices have seen a minor uptick due to tight supply during the rainy season [1][2] - Nickel iron prices are stable but under pressure from steel mills, with transaction prices around 965-970 yuan/nickel (tax included) [1][2] Supply - According to Mysteel, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills in May is 3.4899 million tons, a 0.4% decrease month-on-month but a 5.8% increase year-on-year [1] - The production of the 300 series is 1.776 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 7.5% year-on-year [1] Inventory - Social inventory data shows a weekly decline, with a reduction in warehouse receipts [1] - As of May 23, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 531,000 tons, down 30,800 tons week-on-week [1] - On May 26, stainless steel futures inventory is 139,121 tons, a decrease of 17,241 tons week-on-week [1] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market remains under pressure with high costs, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals after macroeconomic sentiments have stabilized [2] - Demand is slowly recovering, primarily driven by just-in-time inventory replenishment [2] - The overall supply surplus remains unchanged, with some steel mills reducing 300 series output while increasing 200 and 400 series production to alleviate losses [2]