欧央行维持渐进宽松路径

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) is facing new considerations regarding its monetary policy path, particularly with the approaching expected interest rate cuts in June [1] - Recent economic data suggests that the rationale for the ECB to adopt a "pause after rate cuts" strategy is strengthening, while maintaining expectations for continued easing within the year [1] - The report includes a baseline scenario of two 25 basis point rate cuts in July and September, emphasizing the need to closely monitor the latest policy statements from ECB officials [1] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that if the euro to dollar price stabilizes above 1.1572, a light long position could be taken with a stop loss at 1.1520, targeting levels of 1.1650 and 1.1692 [2] - Conversely, if a rebound is blocked at 1.1572, a short position could be attempted with a stop loss at 1.1620, targeting 1.1450 and 1.1380, contingent on specific technical indicators [2] - In a range between 1.1380 and 1.1572, a strategy of buying high and selling low is suggested, with stop losses set at 30 points and targets of 50-80 points [2]