News Summary Core Viewpoint - The current market for soybean meal is experiencing fluctuations due to varying supply and demand dynamics, with significant implications for pricing and trading strategies in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - On May 26, the total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills across the country was 114,600 tons, a decrease of 76,800 tons compared to the previous trading day, with spot transactions accounting for 79,600 tons [1]. - As of May 23, the inventory of imported soybeans in major oil mills was 6.17 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 290,000 tons, but a month-on-month increase of 1.12 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 850,000 tons, which is 1.14 million tons higher than the average of the past three years [1]. - The soybean meal inventory in major oil mills stood at 210,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 90,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 140,000 tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 560,000 tons, indicating a historically low level for this time of year [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guodu Futures notes that Brazil is currently in a concentrated export phase for soybeans, while the U.S. is in the soybean planting stage, with a planting rate of 66% as of the week ending May 18, compared to 50% last year and a five-year average of 53% [2]. - The record high yield of Brazilian soybeans at the beginning of the year has led to expectations of increased imports in May, although delays in customs have hindered April's arrivals [2]. - Concerns over reduced soybean yields in Argentina due to heavy rainfall have led to slight rebounds in both domestic and international markets, although the overall impact remains uncertain [2]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Zhengxin Futures indicates that the short-term cost pressures remain, with a generally loose supply of soybean meal domestically and sufficient soybean supply expected from May to July, as oil mills return to normal operating levels [3]. - In the medium to long term, a reduction in U.S. soybean planting area is becoming more certain, which supports bullish sentiment for soybean meal in the distant months [3]. - The ongoing developments in U.S.-China tariffs may also provide bullish factors for U.S. soybeans in the long term, suggesting a strategy of buying soybean meal on dips within the price range of 2,900 to 3,000 [3].
国内供应整体宽松 短期预计豆粕上涨空间有限
Jin Tou Wang·2025-05-27 06:00