Armour Residential REIT Preferred C: 8.5% Yield In Times Of Economic Uncertainty

Company Overview - Armour Residential REIT (ARR) is an agency mREIT with a market capitalization of approximately $1.3 billion and manages a $14.7 billion portfolio of U.S. Government-sponsored mortgage-backed securities, leveraging equity approximately 8.5 times [4]. Investment Strategy - A fixed-income focused strategy called Crazy 8s or Baseline + was developed, aiming to generate returns primarily from dividends of discounted preferred equities, with potential additional returns from declining interest rates pushing share prices toward par [3]. - The preferred shares of ARR, specifically ARR.PR.C, are considered a hybrid fixed-income investment, supported by the income generated from the portfolio [5]. Preferred Shares Characteristics - The preferred issuance has a face value of $171 million, carries a fixed 7.0% coupon, and is currently yielding 8.56%, which is approximately 400 basis points above the current 10-year Treasury yield [6]. - The share price of ARR.PR.C has decreased by about $2 (approximately 9%) since the last coverage, prompting a comparative analysis of its performance against long-term fixed-income alternatives [9]. Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have shifted, with recent indications that very low rates are not guaranteed, impacting the investment landscape [2]. - Current 10-year Treasury yields have risen to over 4.65%, reflecting changing market conditions since the Fed began cutting rates [2]. Historical Performance - Over the past five years, ARR.PR.C has shown a tendency to price in line with yield scarcity while consistently offering a yield coupon significantly above Treasuries [25][26]. - The comparison of ARR.PR.C to long-term Treasuries highlights the substantial credit risk associated with preferred REIT equity versus the riskless nature of T-bonds [23].