Prediction: This High-Yield Dividend Stock Will Outperform the S&P 500 Over the Next Decade

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index, despite its heavy weighting towards large companies, has shown strong performance over the years, with a 173% increase from 2015 to 2025, and a total return of 226% including dividends [2] Company Overview: UnitedHealth Group - UnitedHealth Group has faced significant challenges recently, particularly in its UnitedHealthcare business, leading to a decline in stock prices [5][11] - The company has a strong history of dividend growth, with a 320% increase over the past decade, currently offering a 2.8% dividend yield, which is more than double the average yield of S&P 500 dividend payers [6] Financial Performance and Outlook - The company added 2.1 million new Medicare Advantage patients in 2024, indicating growth potential in this segment [6] - Management's earnings guidance has been revised downward due to higher-than-expected medical expenditures, with initial projections for 2025 earnings per share revised from $28.15-$28.65 to $24.65-$25.15, and ultimately suspending the earnings outlook entirely [8][9] - The stock is currently trading at a low valuation of 12.4 times trailing-12-month earnings, suggesting potential for future growth as the company has historically increased earnings per share by 10.9% annually over the past decade [15] Competitive Position - UnitedHealth Group's Optum Health segment employs around 10% of America's physicians, providing it with significant control over medical expenses compared to competitors [13] - The company is expected to maintain a competitively priced option in the market due to its integrated business model, despite potential short-term earnings contractions related to Medicare Advantage planning [14]