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CCL vs. NCLH: Which Cruise Stock Offers Smoother Sailing in 2025?
CCLCarnival (CCL) ZACKS·2025-05-27 14:05

Industry Overview - The cruise industry is projected to welcome 37.7 million passengers in 2025, indicating steady growth and strong consumer demand [2] - 82% of past cruisers plan to sail again, and 68% of international travelers are considering their first cruise, with first-time cruisers accounting for 31% of all passengers over the past two years [2] - Multi-generational cruising is increasing, with nearly one-third of passengers traveling with three or more generations, and expedition cruises have seen a 22% year-over-year increase in passengers [3] Carnival Corporation (CCL) - Carnival operates eight cruise brands and is leveraging its scale and brand depth to achieve strong performance, with over 80% of 2025 sailings already booked [5][20] - The company is enhancing guest experience through exclusive destinations and is expected to drive incremental revenues and improve customer loyalty [6] - Carnival is focused on deleveraging, targeting a 5billionreductionindebtover20252026,andiswellpositionedtogeneratestrongfreecashflow[7]Thestockhasrallied42.25 billion reduction in debt over 2025-2026, and is well-positioned to generate strong free cash flow [7] - The stock has rallied 42.2% in the past year, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [16] - Carnival's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 11.30X, below the industry average of 17.32X [22] Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) - Norwegian is enhancing guest experience and operational efficiency with its new Prima Plus class ship and investments in its private island, Great Stirrup Cay [9][10] - The company is executing a cost transformation initiative aimed at delivering 300 million in savings while focusing on refinancing and reducing overall leverage [11] - Despite a slight adjustment in its full-year yield outlook, Norwegian reaffirmed its broader earnings and EBITDA guidance, reflecting confidence in demand trends [12] - Norwegian's stock has risen 4.6% over the past year [16] - The forward 12-month P/E ratio for NCLH is 7.87X, indicating a lower valuation compared to Carnival [22] Comparative Analysis - Both Carnival and Norwegian are benefiting from strong industry demand and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing guest experience and financial health [19] - Carnival's unmatched scale and brand diversification position it better to capitalize on structural growth in the cruise sector, while Norwegian's smaller scale makes it more vulnerable to short-term fluctuations [20] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carnival suggests year-over-year increases of 4.1% in sales and 30.3% in EPS for fiscal 2025, while Norwegian's estimates indicate increases of 6.2% in sales and 12.6% in EPS [13][14]