美国5月消费者信心强劲回升 关税暂停提振预期情绪

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the Conference Board indicates a significant rebound in the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index to 98.0 in May, up from 85.7 in April, ending a five-month decline and reflecting improved consumer sentiment towards the economy [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Economic Outlook - The rebound in consumer confidence is evident in both current economic assessments and future expectations, with the "Present Situation Index" rising by 4.8 points to 135.9 and the "Expectations Index" increasing by 17.4 points to 72.8, although it remains below the 80 threshold that typically signals recession risks [1][2] - The overall improvement in confidence was driven by a rebound in consumer views on future business conditions, job opportunities, and personal income, with consumers less pessimistic about the economy and employment than in April [2] Group 2: Stock Market and Inflation Expectations - As the U.S. stock market continued to recover in May, 44% of consumers expect stock prices to rise in the next 12 months, up from 37.6% in April, while the proportion expecting a decline fell from 47.2% to 37.7% [3] - Consumers' inflation expectations decreased from 7% in April to 6.5% in May, indicating a shift in sentiment towards a more stable economic outlook [3] Group 3: Consumer Spending Behavior - There was a notable increase in consumers' willingness to make large purchases in May, with plans for buying homes, cars, and vacations rising, particularly after May 12 [4] - Spending intentions for high-value items like appliances and electronics also increased, alongside a general rise in spending on services, with dining out being the most popular choice [4] Group 4: Financial Behavior and Concerns - 36.7% of consumers reported saving for future expenditures, while 26.6% indicated they had tapped into savings for current spending, and 26% postponed significant purchasing decisions [4] - Concerns about affording necessary goods or desired items were higher than worries about unemployment, with nearly half of consumers expressing fears about future affordability [4] Group 5: Business and Employment Outlook - In May, 21.9% of consumers rated business conditions as "good," up from 19.2% in April, while those rating conditions as "bad" decreased from 16.3% to 14% [5] - Expectations for the business environment to improve in the next six months rose to 19.7%, while the proportion expecting deterioration fell from 34.9% to 26.7% [6]