Dollar General (DG) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Can the Stock Move Higher?

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Dollar General despite higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Dollar General is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.47 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 10.9% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $10.28 billion, indicating a 3.7% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.03% over the last 30 days, indicating a slight reassessment by analysts [4]. - A positive Earnings ESP of +3.15% suggests analysts have recently become more optimistic about Dollar General's earnings prospects [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [8]. - Dollar General currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which, along with the positive Earnings ESP, suggests a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Dollar General exceeded expectations by delivering earnings of $1.68 per share against an expected $1.50, resulting in a surprise of +12% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [13]. Industry Comparison - Burlington Stores, a competitor in the discount retail sector, is expected to report earnings of $1.42 per share, unchanged from the previous year, with revenues projected at $2.53 billion, up 7.3% [17]. - Burlington Stores has seen a 1.2% upward revision in its EPS estimate over the last 30 days, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +3.45%, indicating a likely earnings beat [18].