俄乌和谈前景如何？起草备忘录、完成换俘，也有人要继续拱火

Group 1 - Russia is drafting a memorandum regarding a future peace agreement with Ukraine, outlining principles for resolving the crisis and a potential timeline for achieving peace [2][3] - The memorandum will clarify Russia's position, including principles for crisis resolution and a possible ceasefire period upon reaching an agreement [2] - The completion of the memorandum will be followed by its transfer to Ukraine [2] Group 2 - Russia and Ukraine have completed a "thousand" prisoner exchange plan, with each side transferring 303 prisoners [4][7] - This exchange marks the completion of the third phase of the prisoner swap, totaling 5757 Ukrainian personnel released since the conflict began [7] - The exchange was part of a broader agreement reached during direct negotiations in Istanbul [8] Group 3 - German Chancellor Merz announced the lifting of restrictions on the range of weapons supplied to Ukraine, allowing strikes on military targets within Russia [9][11] - Merz emphasized that Ukraine needs to defend itself effectively against Russian attacks, which have targeted both military and non-military sites [9] - The actual impact of this decision remains to be seen, as previous Western supplies have not included long-range missiles capable of deep strikes into Russian territory [11][12]