动力电池回收行业困局待解 期待政策破冰

Core Insights - The current state of the used power battery recycling industry is characterized by a mismatch between supply and demand, leading to a seller's market and pressure on profitability [1][4][5] - The anticipated "retirement wave" of power batteries is expected to occur in 4-5 years, which may alleviate some supply-demand pressures, but the industry still requires better guidance and regulation [1][3][6] Industry Overview - The rapid growth of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry has led to a surge in the power battery recycling sector, with over 172,000 battery recycling-related companies in China, more than 60% of which were established within the last three years [2] - Despite the expansion, the actual utilization rate of the industry's nominal capacity is only 15.5%, with a significant gap between the expected and actual retirement of batteries [2][3] Market Dynamics - The recycling market is currently facing high acquisition prices for retired batteries, while the selling prices of recycled products do not cover raw material costs, resulting in a "cost inversion" scenario [4] - Informal recycling operations without environmental and safety certifications are exacerbating the situation by offering higher prices for retired batteries, further straining the profitability of legitimate companies [4] Future Projections - While the recycling volume of lithium-ion batteries is projected to exceed 4 million tons by 2030, the lack of regulatory guidance may lead to continued supply-demand imbalances [3] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to decline, which could lead to long-term cost inversion for recycling companies, shifting their revenue model towards service fees for waste management rather than product sales [5] Regulatory Developments - Recent regulations, such as the "Interim Measures for the Recycling and Utilization of Waste Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles" in Sichuan, aim to standardize the recycling process and ensure retired batteries enter formal channels [6] - The national government is working on revising the existing regulations to enhance industry oversight and promote sustainable development, with new guidelines expected to be released within the year [6]