供需博弈加剧豆粕市场或迎关键转折期

Core Viewpoint - The soybean meal market in China has experienced significant price volatility since 2025, primarily due to a mismatch in supply and demand, with factors such as increased imports and seasonal demand influencing market dynamics [1][4]. Price Volatility - Soybean meal spot prices have fluctuated dramatically, rising from 2890.9 yuan/ton at the end of last year to a peak of 3716.8 yuan/ton on February 28, then dropping to a low of 3153.2 yuan/ton by April 10, before rising again to 3721.4 yuan/ton at the end of April and falling to 3026.6 yuan/ton by May 20 [1]. - The main soybean meal futures contract also saw two significant upward trends, with a cumulative increase of 4.69% year-to-date, closing at 2966 yuan/ton on May 27 [1]. Inventory Trends - Inventory data shows significant fluctuations, with a "decrease-increase-decrease" trend observed in soybean meal stocks, breaking seasonal patterns [2]. - As of April 25, soybean meal inventory reached a low of 5.9 thousand tons, compared to 46.14 thousand tons in the same period last year and a five-year average of 39.48 thousand tons [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has faced challenges due to slow raw material procurement, holiday shutdowns, and customs delays, leading to unstable operating rates for production facilities [3]. - Average operating rates for the first and second quarters were 46.8% and 47.27%, respectively, compared to 44.41% and 55.49% in the previous year [3]. Improvement in Supply Situation - By May, the speed of imported soybean clearance improved, alleviating shortages at oil mills and leading to a steady increase in processing volumes [4]. - As of May 23, soybean meal inventory at production enterprises was 18 thousand tons, indicating a low inventory turning point after three weeks of slight increases [4]. Market Outlook - The soybean meal market is at a critical juncture, with expectations of a potential turning point in prices due to improved supply conditions and increased processing rates [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that while the market currently faces downward pressure from increased supply, factors such as rising demand in the feed sector and cost support from international markets may lead to a recovery in prices [5].