ETF版“寡妇交易”逆袭：长期美债ETF获天量资金押注 逢低买入策略迎高光时刻

Core Viewpoint - Investors are capitalizing on a rare opportunity in the long-term U.S. Treasury bond market, with significant inflows into the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) amid concerns over U.S. debt trajectory [1][4] Group 1: Investment Trends - Over the past week, investors have poured $1.8 billion into TLT, making it the most inflow among 630 ETFs tracked by Bloomberg [1] - TLT has attracted approximately $49 billion over the past five years, despite a decline of over 40% during the same period [1] - The recent buying trend indicates that traders are betting that yields have risen enough to attract buyers and compensate for risks associated with long-term bonds [4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Optimism surrounding U.S.-EU trade negotiations and Japan's potential adjustments to bond issuance have contributed to a rise in U.S. Treasury prices, pushing the 30-year bond yield below 5% [1] - TLT experienced a 1.7% increase in intraday trading, potentially marking its largest single-day gain since February [1] - Other ETFs, such as iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH) and iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV), also saw significant inflows [4] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the current market sentiment has shifted from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic, with long-term bonds offering the greatest potential returns due to their sensitivity to interest rate changes [4][5] - The demand for downside protection in the options market indicates that traders remain cautious about further declines in long-term bonds [5] - The outlook for long-term bonds is contingent on fiscal conditions and the appropriateness of lending levels to a country with such a debt trajectory [5]