强势收复7.2整数关口+“反超”汇率中间价 人民币汇率缘何韧性十足

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the RMB exchange rate is highlighted amidst ongoing global trade uncertainties, with the RMB recovering the 7.2 threshold and showing strong performance against the USD [1][4]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of May 28, the onshore and offshore USD/RMB exchange rates hovered around 7.195 and 7.188, with the offshore rate briefly surpassing the onshore midpoint, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards RMB appreciation [1][2]. - The offshore RMB rate reached as high as 7.1703 on May 27, exceeding the onshore midpoint by over 170 basis points, reflecting a change in trading atmosphere [2]. Market Sentiment and Investment Behavior - There is a noticeable decrease in the trend of overseas investment institutions shorting the RMB, with many hedge funds no longer borrowing offshore RMB for short-selling [2][6]. - Large overseas asset management institutions are gradually increasing their holdings in domestic financial assets, boosting demand for RMB [2][6]. - The expectation of a surge in Chinese exports to the U.S. from May to July is driving optimism about the RMB's strength, with predictions of high trade surpluses supporting the currency [2][8]. Forward Contracts and Speculation - Some overseas investment funds are purchasing three-month call options on the RMB, betting on significant appreciation due to favorable trade surplus performance [3][8]. - The market anticipates that the USD/RMB exchange rate will rise to around 7.14 in three months, which is lower than the expectations of some overseas funds [3]. Dollar Depreciation Expectations - The ongoing trade tensions and the potential for U.S. economic recession are leading to increased bearish sentiment towards the USD, with speculators holding significant short positions [4][5]. - The expectation of continued USD depreciation is influencing the foreign exchange market, shifting sentiment towards RMB appreciation [5][6]. Impact of Chinese Exports - The surge in orders from U.S. retailers for Chinese goods is expected to enhance the RMB's valuation, as companies prepare to meet increased demand [7][8]. - The anticipated high trade surplus from May to July is prompting many overseas investment institutions to adjust their RMB valuation models, predicting a potential approach to the 7.0 mark [8][9]. A-Share Market Implications - The strengthening of the RMB is expected to positively impact the A-share market, with predictions that a 1% appreciation in the RMB could lead to a 3% increase in Chinese stocks [9]. - The positive cycle of RMB appreciation attracting foreign investment into A-shares is becoming a significant topic among emerging market funds [9].