新西兰联储：不确定关税政策将如何影响新西兰经济。2025年主要贸易伙伴的经济增速低于潜在水平。经济开始复苏，但关税和全球不确定性将令新西兰经济复苏表现温和。25个基点的降息与中期物价稳定的目标相匹配，委员会以5:1的投票比例通过了本次降息决定。过去降息的影响还需要时间才能完全体现。通胀预期已经上升。CPI处于目标区间范畴，这表明经济存在闲置产能。核心通胀正在回落。全球关税将缓和经济中的通胀压力，有关关税对通胀的影响存在高度不确定性。委员会完全有能力对国内和国际形势作出反应，以维持中期价格稳定。

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand expresses uncertainty regarding the impact of tariff policies on the New Zealand economy, indicating a moderate recovery due to tariffs and global uncertainties [1] Economic Growth - Economic growth of major trading partners is below potential levels for 2025 [1] - The economy is beginning to recover, but the recovery is expected to be moderate due to tariffs and global uncertainties [1] Monetary Policy - A 25 basis point interest rate cut aligns with the goal of medium-term price stability, passed with a 5:1 vote [1] - The effects of previous rate cuts will take time to fully materialize [1] Inflation Dynamics - Inflation expectations have risen, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) within the target range, indicating idle capacity in the economy [1] - Core inflation is on a downward trend [1] - Global tariffs are expected to alleviate inflationary pressures in the economy, although the impact of tariffs on inflation remains highly uncertain [1] Policy Response - The committee is fully capable of responding to domestic and international conditions to maintain medium-term price stability [1]