HTSC(601688) 环球网·2025-05-28 05:12Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is at a critical stage of bottoming out and recovering, driven by the global de-dollarization process and multiple favorable factors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The report indicates that the residential market's transaction volume and price are expected to stabilize first, while commercial assets may benefit from improved consumption and rental recovery [1]. - Historical analysis shows that the stock market often leads the real estate market, with private residential transaction volume typically lagging behind stock market turning points by 5 to 7 months, and price changes lagging by 8 to 11 months [3]. - Since September 2024, the Hang Seng Index has increased by 33%, which may significantly drive the current real estate recovery [3]. Group 2: Market Forecast - In 2024, under comprehensive policy easing, private residential transaction volume and value in Hong Kong are projected to grow by 25% and 18% year-on-year, reaching a three-year high [3]. - Despite challenges such as high interest rates and a prolonged inventory clearance period exceeding 20 months, the rapid decline in HIBOR since early May has eased liquidity constraints, laying a foundation for market recovery [3][4]. Group 3: Positive Factors - Several positive factors are expected to support market improvement: - The appreciation of the Renminbi against the Hong Kong dollar is likely to enhance asset revaluation and attract mainland capital into real estate [4]. - Increased activity in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to boost local consumption and housing demand [4]. - An improved interest rate environment, characterized by a negative correlation between HIBOR and housing prices, is anticipated to enhance the attractiveness of real estate investments [4]. - Population inflow due to immigration policies is expected to support potential housing demand [4]. - There remains policy space for further optimization in areas such as mortgages and taxes [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize by the second half of 2025, with projected year-on-year growth rates for private residential transaction volume of 3% and 5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, and a potential price increase of 3% in 2026 [4].