GDP总量与全球债权霸主地位均被德国反超，日本经济暗藏哪些困境？

Core Viewpoint - Japan has lost its position as the world's largest creditor nation to Germany for the first time in 34 years, with its net foreign assets reaching a record 533.05 trillion yen by the end of 2024, but still falling short of Germany's 569.65 trillion yen [1][3]. Economic Data - Japan's net foreign assets increased by 12.9% from the previous year, marking the seventh consecutive year of growth and surpassing 500 trillion yen for the first time [1]. - Japan's GDP in dollar terms decreased from $5 trillion in 2023 to $4.77 trillion in 2024, dropping to fourth place globally, while Germany's GDP reached $4.8 trillion [1][3]. - As of the end of 2024, Japan's foreign asset balance was 1,659.02 trillion yen, up 11.4% year-on-year, while foreign liabilities were 1,125.97 trillion yen, a 10.7% increase [3][4]. Investment Trends - Japanese companies have increasingly focused on direct investments rather than foreign bonds, with over 40% of reinvested earnings not returning to Japan, indicating a trend towards new investments [6][8]. - The five major Japanese trading companies, favored by Warren Buffett, have a high internationalization ratio, with four of them investing over 45% outside Japan [4]. - In 2024, Japan's investment in the U.S. reached 11.7 trillion yen, accounting for nearly 40% of its total foreign investments, the highest level since 2014 [4]. Currency and Economic Challenges - The depreciation of the yen has been significant, with the exchange rate reaching 157.89 yen per dollar by the end of 2024, an 11.7% increase from the previous year [3][5]. - Japan's economy faced a contraction in the first quarter of 2024, with GDP declining by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year, attributed to weak personal consumption and external demand [5][6]. Policy and Market Reactions - The Bank of Japan is facing challenges in balancing its bond yield policies and quantitative easing, leading to supply-demand imbalances in the bond market [7][8]. - Concerns over Japan's fiscal sustainability are affecting investor sentiment towards Japanese government bonds, with potential implications for future investment strategies [8].