中信证券杨帆：“十五五”开局政策思路重点聚焦三方面

Core Viewpoint - The analysis emphasizes that uncertainty will permeate the economic operations of 2025, suggesting that historical periods of heightened uncertainty have led to both phase contraction and structural differentiation in the global economy [1] Group 1: Policy Focus Areas - The policy approach for the "14th Five-Year Plan" will concentrate on three main areas: expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, with fiscal expansion likely directed towards enhancing consumer willingness [1] - There will be a greater emphasis on price recovery, aiming to promote a moderate rebound in prices [1] - Financial resources will be utilized to nurture new productive forces, fostering the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The economic performance in the second half of the year is expected to be influenced primarily by tariff disturbances, with price levels reflecting downward pressure first, although the impact on GDP may be lagging [1] - The economy is anticipated to exhibit characteristics of "strong production, recovering investment, stable consumption, and resilient exports" [1]