供应依旧偏紧且矛盾短期难缓 铜价格震荡偏强运行

Core Insights - The current spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai is reported at 78,510.00 CNY per ton, with a premium of 640.00 CNY over the futures main price of 77,870.00 CNY per ton [1] - The futures market shows a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 77,870.00 CNY per ton, down 0.15%, with a trading volume of 73,407 lots on May 28 [2] Price Overview - The price list for 1 electrolytic copper shows various quotes: - Shanghai Huatuo: 78,510 CNY/ton - Guangdong Nanshu: 78,500 CNY/ton - Shanghai YS: 78,495 CNY/ton [2] Market Capacity and Inventory - In 2025, 29 major domestic copper strip and sheet processing enterprises have a combined effective capacity of 2.034 million tons, accounting for 48.7% of the national effective total capacity [3] - As of May 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a copper futures warehouse receipt of 34,861 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous trading day, with a cumulative reduction of 6,357 tons over the past week, representing a decrease of 15.42% [3] Market Analysis - The market is facing price suppression due to global economic weakness expectations driven by tariff policies, alongside a backdrop of a mild recession and high interest rates in the U.S. [4] - Support for prices is expected from tight copper raw material supply and potential new restocking demand following tariff easing [4] - Recent trends show a continuous reduction in LME and SHFE inventories, indicating that spot premiums and backwardation structures may persist for an extended period, supporting a strong price fluctuation [4]