美股科技股正“悬崖边跳舞”？“双顶”预警或触发50%深度回调

Core Viewpoint - Current technology stocks face significant correction risks, with both short-term volatility and long-term risks needing attention. Market valuations are nearing historical extremes, and economic growth is slowing, indicating potential market bubbles as highlighted by the Buffett Indicator [1][2]. Group 1: Market Valuation and Risks - The Buffett Indicator, which compares total market capitalization to the size of the U.S. economy, signals potential market bubbles when stock market growth outpaces economic growth [1]. - Historical data shows that when the Buffett Indicator exceeds +2 standard deviations, markets often experience corrections of over 50% [2]. - The current market is forming a potential "double top" pattern, indicating a possible trend reversal [1]. Group 2: Catalysts for Market Correction - Multiple factors could trigger a larger market adjustment, including ongoing trade tensions, inflation volatility, and geopolitical risks [4]. - The U.S. has imposed comprehensive tariffs on global trade partners, with tariffs on China reaching as high as 145%, leading to retaliatory tariffs and significant market volatility [4][5]. - Inflation risks are heightened, with the Federal Reserve warning of increased volatility and supply shocks compared to previous decades [6]. Group 3: Capital Flows and Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable shift in capital flows, with investors moving away from U.S. tech stocks towards undervalued sectors, indicating a loss of confidence in the safety of U.S. markets [6]. - Retail investors have been aggressively buying stocks, which may create a "bull trap" as they attempt to capitalize on market rebounds [7]. - Recent data shows that fund inflows have reverted to levels seen at the start of the AI market rally in January 2023, suggesting a reversal in trends [7]. Group 4: Economic Growth and Technology Spending - Major tech companies are facing dual challenges of high capital expenditures in AI infrastructure and economic downturn risks, with the latest U.S. GDP growth showing a decline of 0.3% [8][11]. - Predictions indicate that capital expenditures in AI could reach $325 billion by 2025, but the return on such investments remains uncertain, especially in a recession scenario [11]. - The current market is at one of the highest valuation levels since the 1960s, suggesting that stock prices may have already priced in most potential growth [8].