Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-05-28 09:16Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Capital Market Forum hosted by CITIC Securities emphasizes the need for proactive measures to navigate the new phase of international political and economic dynamics, as well as China's economic transformation and capital market ecology [1][3]. Economic Outlook - China's economy is showing signs of recovery amidst fluctuations, with retail consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment displaying positive trends. The GDP growth target for 2025 is projected at around 5.0% [1][8]. - The global economy is undergoing profound restructuring, with the U.S. facing significant structural challenges, while China's economic resilience is highlighted by its strong performance in retail and manufacturing [8][10]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The Chinese government is focusing on expanding domestic demand and ensuring social welfare as primary policy objectives, with an emphasis on boosting consumption [3][4]. - Recent reforms in the capital market, including the "National Nine Articles" and a comprehensive policy framework, are reshaping the foundational systems and regulatory logic of the market [6][7]. Investment Strategy - CITIC Securities anticipates a bull market for Chinese equity assets starting in Q4 2025, driven by synchronized economic and policy cycles across major economies [2][14]. - The investment strategy suggests focusing on three long-term trends: enhancing China's technological capabilities, European defense autonomy, and improving social security to stimulate domestic demand [14]. Capital Market Resilience - The capital market in China is demonstrating unique resilience amidst global volatility, with a shift towards a more coordinated investment and enhanced investor protection [6][7]. - The market's ecosystem is evolving, with a significant increase in dividends and buybacks compared to IPOs and refinancing, indicating a healthier market environment [6].