Will Q1 Results Move American Eagle Stock Down?

Core Viewpoint - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) is expected to report a fiscal first-quarter earnings loss of 22 cents per share and revenue of $1.09 billion, a decline from last year's earnings of 34 cents per share and revenue of $1.14 billion [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Historical Performance - AEO anticipates a slight decline in sales for the entire year, expected to fall by low single digits [2] - The company has a market capitalization of $2.0 billion and reported revenue of $5.3 billion over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $445 million and net income of $329 million [2] - Historically, AEO stock has dropped 60% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day decline of 5.4% and a maximum decline of 14% [1][2] Group 2: Post-Earnings Return Analysis - Over the past five years, AEO has recorded 20 earnings data points, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 40% of the time [5] - The median of the 8 positive returns is 2.4%, while the median of the 12 negative returns is -5.4% [5] - The correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D) returns can be analyzed to inform trading strategies, particularly if the 1D post-earnings return is positive [3][4]