Mabwell(SH:688062) Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-05-28 10:32Core Insights - The company is facing a dangerous expansion paradox with significant fixed asset investments of 1.894 billion yuan and ambitious capacity expansion plans, while experiencing a low capacity utilization rate of only 26.15% and actual drug sales revenue of 145 million yuan [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - The company's main products are underperforming, with a drastic decline in sales revenue. The projected sales for three key drugs were expected to reach between 1.435 billion to 1.762 billion yuan by 2025, but actual revenue for 2024 is only 145 million yuan, less than one-tenth of the optimistic forecast [2] - The drug Junmaikang (similar to Adalimumab) saw a 70% drop in shipment volume from approximately 166,900 units in 2023 to 48,800 units in 2024, facing intense competition and high costs [2] - The drug Mailishu (similar to Dexamethasone) also fell short of expectations, with actual sales of only 84,400 units and revenue of 42.09 million yuan in 2023, compared to a forecast of at least 300,000 units and 180 million yuan [2] - The drug Maiweijian (similar to Dexamethasone) was only approved by the end of March 2024, with shipments of just 12,530 units, limited by fewer approved indications and a lengthy market access process [2] Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Financial Strain - Despite poor sales performance, the company has aggressively expanded its production capacity, with fixed assets increasing by 165.49% to 1.653 billion yuan by the end of 2024, and total fixed assets and construction in progress reaching 1.894 billion yuan, accounting for 44.31% of total assets [3] - The actual capacity utilization rate is only 26.15%, with a production and sales rate of 81.08%. The company anticipates annual fixed asset depreciation costs of approximately 130 million yuan, nearly equal to its total drug sales revenue for 2024 [3] Group 3: Debt and Cash Flow Challenges - The company is under significant financial pressure, with short-term borrowings and long-term borrowings due within one year totaling 1.035 billion yuan by the end of 2024, leading to a debt-to-asset ratio of 63.61% and a negative operating cash flow of -956 million yuan [4] - The company is relying on two strategies to address its financial challenges: completing an H-share IPO for capital infusion and hoping for future revenue from unlisted pipelines to cover debts [4] Group 4: Leadership and IPO Uncertainty - The chairman and general manager of the company is under investigation for suspected insider trading, which has caused a significant drop in stock price and raised concerns about the impact on the H-share IPO process [5] - Although the company claims the investigation does not affect daily operations or the IPO plan, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has strict scrutiny over management stability and integrity, which could delay the IPO process significantly [6] - The company submitted its prospectus for the Hong Kong IPO on January 6, and must complete the hearing or listing within six months, or the prospectus will become invalid, adding pressure to resolve the investigation quickly [6]