Applied Digital Rises 69% in a Month: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) has experienced a significant share price increase of 69.4% over the past month, driven by positive industry trends despite previous declines due to industry-specific challenges [1][2]. Company Performance - APLD reported a loss of 16 cents per share in the first quarter, a decline from earnings of 52 cents per share a year ago, attributed to higher depreciation and amortization expenses despite robust sales growth [3]. - The company's stock has outperformed the broader Finance sector, which grew by 2.6%, and the S&P 500 Index, which increased by 4.4% [2]. Industry Trends - Major hyperscalers like Microsoft and Meta are planning substantial investments in AI services, with Meta investing $62.5 billion and Microsoft potentially reaching $80 billion in capital expenditures by 2025, indicating strong demand for AI-focused data centers [6]. - APLD's Data Center Hosting sales declined by 7% year over year in the first quarter, but rising demand may lead to securing its first hyperscaler customer at the Ellendale facility, which could significantly boost future sales [6]. Expansion and Financial Position - APLD has invested nearly $1 billion in assets over the past year, primarily for data center construction, and currently operates 286 megawatts of fully contracted data center hosting capacity [7]. - The company secured a $150 million equity facility to support its HPC infrastructure expansion, addressing substantial cash burn from high capital expenditures [8]. Short-Term Challenges - Rising costs, particularly from higher depreciation expenses and seasonal power cost fluctuations, are expected to pressure APLD's bottom line in the near term [9]. - APLD experienced a 35.7% sequential decline in Cloud Services revenues due to technical challenges in transitioning to a multi-tenant on-demand model, although the issue has been resolved [9][10]. Valuation Concerns - APLD's stock is currently trading at a premium, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/S) ratio of 7.02X compared to the industry average of 3.48X, indicating a lofty valuation [11]. Conclusion - The recent surge in APLD's share price has led to a significant increase in its valuation, making it an expensive choice currently, with margins likely to remain under pressure [15].