AAL vs. SKYW: Which Airline Stock is a Stronger Play Now?

Core Viewpoint - The article compares American Airlines (AAL) and SkyWest (SKYW) to determine which airline presents a better investment opportunity amid current economic uncertainties and industry challenges [3][20]. Group 1: American Airlines (AAL) - AAL projected earnings per share for Q2 2025 to be between $0.50 and $1, but withdrew its 2025 financial guidance due to tariff-induced economic uncertainties [4]. - AAL reported a narrower-than-expected loss in Q1 2025, maintaining an earnings surprise record for the last four quarters, despite facing a slowdown in domestic air travel demand [5]. - AAL's long-term debt was $24.7 billion at the end of Q1 2025, resulting in a debt-to-capitalization ratio exceeding 100%, significantly higher than the sub-industry average of 70.4% [6]. - Labor costs increased by 9.2% year-over-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to a deal with pilots, negatively impacting AAL's profitability [8]. - Fuel expenses decreased by 13.2% to $2.6 billion in Q1 2025, with average fuel prices dropping from $2.86 to $2.48 per gallon, providing some cost relief [9]. Group 2: SkyWest (SKYW) - SKYW has a strong track record of meeting the requirements of major airline partners, leading to impressive revenues from flying agreements [12]. - The current production delays at Boeing have benefited SKYW by improving its pilot-staffing situation, as major airlines have slowed down pilot hiring [13]. - SKYW's board approved a $250 million increase to its share repurchase plan, indicating a shareholder-friendly approach and lower leverage compared to AAL [14]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SKYW's 2025 and 2026 sales implies year-over-year increases of 10.5% and 4.2%, respectively, with EPS estimates showing increases of 19.4% and 6.4% for the same periods [19]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - AAL is facing headwinds from high debt and labor costs, while SKYW's focus on domestic routes and lower debt levels positions it more favorably amid tariff-induced uncertainties [21]. - The article concludes that SKYW appears to be a better investment choice than AAL at this time, with SKYW holding a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) compared to AAL's 5 (Strong Sell) [22].