HSBC vs. SAN: Which Global Bank Deserves a Spot in Your Portfolio?

Core Viewpoint - HSBC is focusing on an Asia-centric growth strategy while Santander is reinforcing its presence in Europe and the Americas, leading to a comparison of their investment opportunities [2][22]. HSBC Overview - HSBC is intensifying its Asia-focused strategy, aiming to become a leading wealth manager for high-net-worth clients in Asia, which constitutes over half of its operations [3]. - The bank is expanding its wealth business in mainland China by launching lifestyle-based wealth centers, acquiring Citigroup's retail wealth portfolio, and enhancing digital capabilities [3]. - In India, HSBC plans to open 20 new branches, expanding from 26 branches in 14 cities, to capture the projected 50% growth in the ultra-high-net-worth population by 2028 [4]. - HSBC announced a $1.5 billion cost-saving plan tied to organizational simplification, with upfront charges estimated at $1.8 billion by 2026 [5]. - The bank is divesting operations in several countries, including the U.S., Canada, and Argentina, to sharpen focus and improve returns [6]. - Revenue generation has been subdued due to a challenging macroeconomic environment, with weak loan demand impacting top-line growth [7]. Santander Overview - Santander is streamlining operations and reallocating resources to strengthen its presence in high-growth markets across Europe and the Americas [8]. - The bank sold a 49% stake in its Polish banking unit, expecting to temporarily exceed its CET1 capital ratio target of 12-13% and plans to reinvest strategically [8]. - Approximately €3.2 billion in capital released from the sale will be returned to shareholders through buybacks, supporting a €10 billion buyback target for 2025-2026 [9]. - Santander plans to close around 20 retail branches in the U.S. to align with the shift to digital banking, supporting the expansion of its digital platform, Openbank [10]. - The One Transformation program aims to drive digitalization and operational efficiency, keeping Santander on track to meet its 2025 targets of €62 billion in revenues [11]. Earnings Estimates Comparison - HSBC's earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 indicate growth of 5.1% and 3%, respectively, with recent revisions showing mixed trends [12]. - In contrast, Santander's earnings estimates suggest increases of 15.7% for 2025 and 7% for 2026, with upward revisions over the past month [14]. Price Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Santander's shares have increased by 76.6% on the NYSE, while HSBC's shares have gained 19.6% [16]. - HSBC is trading at a price/tangible book (P/TB) of 1.06X, higher than its five-year median of 0.75X, while Santander is at 1.36X, above its five-year median of 0.71X [18]. - HSBC's return on equity (ROE) stands at 12.55%, slightly above Santander's 12.26%, indicating efficient use of shareholder funds [20]. Investment Outlook - Santander is viewed as the better investment opportunity due to its stronger near-term earnings outlook and superior stock performance [22]. - HSBC's pivot to Asia and wealth management could yield significant long-term returns, but current revenue growth and earnings performance raise concerns [26].